A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
