Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, while the victories have accumulated.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
