Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
